|Airbus deliveries||2008 level|
|Airbus gross orders||up to 300|
|Free Cash Flow after customer financing||around minus € 1 billion|
The first half of 2009 confirms the trends identified at the beginning of the year. The Group's bottom-up analysis of the order book still shows overbooking for the coming years. Nevertheless, this is challenged by the deterioration of the macro-economic and traffic indicators, even if the negative trend was stopped or slightly reversed recently. There is no clear sign of stabilisation since traffic and yield deterioration as well as funding conditions are challenging airlines’ financials. Therefore, EADS is cautiously monitoring the market, its customer base and its suppliers and continues to apply a rolling plan concept. Besides the commercial order book, the Group's solid defence and institutional order book provides a certain level of protection and stability.
EADS expects Airbus to capture up to 300 new gross orders in 2009, even if that goal is challenging in the current market environment. Based on the healthy H1 delivery trend, deliveries of 2009 should be at least at the 2008 level. With an assumption of a US dollar rate of € 1 = US$ 1.39, EADS revenues should be roughly in line with the 2008 level.
Under these assumptions, EBIT* before one-off in the second half of 2009 should be positive but lower compared to the first half of 2009. Compared to the first six months of the year, it will be negatively impacted, mainly by increasing Research & Development expenses and significant hedge rates deterioration. EADS R&D expenses should amount to roughly € 3 billion for the full year. On the other side, this degradation will be partly offset by a lower price deterioration than in H1 and by favourable seasonal effects on part of the business. Concerning one-off impacts affecting H2, the range and magnitude of the potential A400M programme charge is wide. Finally, A380 ramp-up is progressing and Airbus expects to deliver 14 A380 in 2009.
A380 costs are still higher than expected and EADS will review the potential impact on the learning curve in H2.
EADS is raising its Free Cash Flow guidance. EADS is now expected to consume around € 1 billion of Free Cash Flow after customer financing in 2009 not taking into account the A400M programme.
* EADS uses EBIT pre-goodwill impairment and exceptionals as a key indicator of its economic performance. The term “exceptionals” refers to income or expenses of a non-recurring nature, such as amortization expenses of fair value adjustments relating to the EADS merger, the formation of Airbus S.A.S. and the formation of MBDA, and impairment charges.